As the series of Hurricanes and Tropical Storms line up we are reminded of the power of Mother Nature, and of the accuracy of extended weather modeling. We can see a storm exists and is, in the case of Florence, headed for the East Coast -The Carolina’s appear to be the landfall prediction currently. It is when we get down to the specific forecast of how much wind and rain will come, what time will it make landfall, and what point will be center mass for the storm. Those details are predicted as well, but with much less accuracy, Mother Nature is still in charge. Every year, around now, I remind you that market and/or economic forecasting is similar to the weather. Looking farther out, we can see trends and patterns and overlay them with history and current data to get a track for where things may be headed. It is the details of what day is the market high, or when does the decline begin: those, like the weather, are nearly impossible to call until they are or have just happened.
I would not make a sizable bet on the time and location or damage for Florence, but I would say sales of Plywood, sandbags, generators, etc… is (and has) trending up in preparation. Goldmining was a boom or bust occupation, but selling supplies to goldminers, as Levi Strauss did, well that was profitable regardless of any one individuals’ success. The risk/reward in gold mining was high, it was much lower for the Strauss company. Portfolios should be reflective of your risk tolerance and should contain a mix or diversification of holdings in different areas.
17 years ago, on September 11 our Country was shaken, from the heart of the Financial District in New York City, to Pennsylvania and Washington DC. Our freedoms are not free, and our tomorrows are not guaranteed. Embrace your time, your family, and your passions – while in background you maintain your diligence to preparation and planning for future events both planned and unplanned. Have the best of weeks.