Broker Check

Beating the Heat

| July 23, 2018
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“It ain’t the heat, it’s the humility.” – Yogi Berra

For many of us the thermometer has been hitting big numbers lately, and I have seen several HVAC trucks in the neighborhood. Demand for those folks is big right now. Expect to see some big numbers when the initial 2nd Quarter GDP report comes out on Friday. Many experts are predicting a number not only at 4% but I have seen as high as 4.8% forecasted. This is a big “data” week in the markets as nearly a third of the S&P 500 report earnings, and import-export numbers get released on Thursday, just in time for the GDP calculation. Potential early indications for trade negotiations and tariffs will likely be discussed to no end on the news networks.

After seeing The Dow hit record highs on 70 days last year, we have seen only one this year, January 26. We are six months into a market that has slowed to a grind even amongst good earning and economic news. Yes, trade relations and tariffs are the easiest target for why we are taking a market “breather.” On the other hand, maybe it was just time for a pause in the cycle. In reality, it is almost certain to be a dose of both, so now what? What does a big GDP number mean if it comes down at 4+% on Friday? If you are trying to time the markets, good luck, I have lost track if we are in a good news is good news cycle or a good news is bad news cycle, I wish someone would just report the news without so many interpretations and opinions. If on the other hand you are somewhere along the Utica Capital spectrum of Defining-Building-Preserving Your Legacy then the data becomes far less reactionary, and more of what it is, another set of data points. Building and Preserving a financial Legacy is not about timing, it is about making smart decisions, and avoiding the fatal mistakes. Sort of like getting your HVAC system regularly maintained, rather than making the call at 5:30 pm because you came home to your neighborhoods largest sauna.

Have a great week and stay cool.

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